Background
The world needs to rapidly accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in order to meet global climate goals. However, across multiple regions of the Global South, renewable energy projects face delays, conflicts, and increasing levels of social resistance associated with territorial disputes, weak governance, socio-environmental impacts, and perceptions of injustice.
Against this backdrop, the JustRE Alliance hosted a webinar to present research led by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) aimed at understanding how social resistance affects the pace and feasibility of implementing large-scale renewable energy projects.
The session brought together researchers, energy sector practitioners, representatives of international organizations, and participants from Latin America, Africa, and Asia to discuss a new data-driven approach that examines the relationship between social conflict, public perception, and delays in renewable energy projects.
The webinar was moderated by Juanita Fonseca, Coordinator of the JustRE Alliance, and featured a presentation by Germán Sáenz, Research Associate I at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), who presented the main methodological findings and results of the research under the leadership of José Vega Araújo, Head of SEI’s Renewable Energy Team.
The webinar forms part of the broader work of the JustRE Alliance to promote socially sustainable energy transitions, recognizing that the pace of implementation depends not only on technical or financial factors, but also on territorial dynamics, community participation, and social legitimacy.
Key Questions Addressed
The discussion revolved around several key questions:
A recurring theme throughout the discussion was that social resistance should not necessarily be understood as opposition to the energy transition itself, but rather as a response to previous experiences of exclusion, territorial conflict, inequity, or a lack of meaningful participation—what has been described as accumulated socio-environmental impacts.
Scope of the Research
The research presented by SEI analyzed endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the implementation of wind and solar energy projects in nine countries across the Global South:
- 3 countries in Latin America
- 3 countries in Africa
- 3 countries in Southeast Asia
The study reconstructed time series of projected renewable energy generation capacity (solar and wind) developed by public authorities or vertically integrated utilities and analyzed the difference between projected installed capacity and capacity that was actually implemented over time.
This difference was defined by the research team as the “implementation gap.”
The research sought to understand the extent to which social variables—particularly conflict and public perception—help explain these gaps, validating their role within a multivariable fixed-effects econometric regression model. Control variables included market, institutional, governance, and local factors. The full report will be published in the coming weeks.
Key Findings
Methodology Presented
The webinar included a detailed explanation of the methodology used to construct the social resistance indicators.
Discussion on the Use of Indicators
A significant portion of the discussion focused on the potential of these indicators as early warning tools.
Participants discussed how these types of tools could help:
- Anticipate social risks
- Identify territories with high levels of social sensitivity
- Improve planning processes
- Strengthen community participation strategies
- Support differentiated responses depending on the type of conflict (temporary or structural)
- Inform investment decisions
The potential for developing real-time monitoring tools with periodic updates was also discussed.
At the same time, the webinar addressed several important limitations in the construction of these indicators.
Identified Limitations and Challenges
Participants and the research team highlighted several methodological and contextual limitations:
Emerging Reflections from the Discussion
Several central ideas emerged throughout the webinar.
Next Steps Discussed
The research team shared several future areas of work:
- Expanding the number of countries analyzed and extending the time horizon
- Strengthening statistical validation through larger datasets
- Developing subnational analyses
- Creating real-time monitoring systems
- Producing accessible tools for decision-makers
The discussion also highlighted the potential for publishing methodological guidance and visualization platforms to facilitate the use of these indicators by public institutions, developers, and investors.
General Conclusions
The webinar made clear that energy transitions cannot be assessed solely through installed capacity targets. Given current needs, the gap between planned and implemented capacity should be close to zero—or positive, in cases where implemented capacity exceeds planned capacity.
The effective implementation of renewable energy also depends on social, historical, and territorial factors that directly influence the legitimacy, pace, and sustainability of projects.
The research presented by SEI provides emerging evidence of how social conflict and public perception dynamics may serve as anticipatory indicators for tracking the implementation trajectory of renewable energy infrastructure in the Global South.
The discussion also highlighted the need to advance energy transition models that incorporate:
The webinar reaffirmed a central idea for the JustRE Alliance:
A rapid energy transition will only be possible if it is also socially legitimate and territorially just.
